Some very interesting news for the NAC market this week with multiple analysts publishing predictions and market forecasts.
Patrik Bihammar at IDC talked up the threat landscape and says NAC has become a high priority because of the “everything, everywhere” network. IDC expects the NAC market to grow at 43 percent year on year to reach $US3.8 billion by 2011.
Infonetics also released its latest market forecast, appropriately titled, “Reports of NAC’s death have been greatly exaggerated”, showing market growth of 16% in 1Q08 and expected double digit growth for the next five years.
All of this good news was tempered by a warning to smaller NAC vendors in a Network World article this morning. In short, Gartner claims Cisco and Microsoft may marginalize NAC vendors by 2009 because of Cisco’s success in the enterprise switching market (and presumably Microsoft’s domination of desktops).
It’s great to see data from IDC and Infonetics, but I’ve heard the Gartner analysis before. In the late nineties it was enterprise vendors like Cisco and Check Point that were going to crush firewall appliance startups. In reality it took Cisco ten years to get their act together, and meanwhile companies like WatchGuard, Sonicwall and Netscreen grew and prospered in the mid and large enterprise markets. If that is the definition of getting crushed by Cisco, bring it on!
The Gartner hypothesis referenced in Network World doesn’t apply equally to all companies. The problems that large enterprises are solving with NAC technology are equally relevant to the small and medium enterprise customer: guest Internet and printer access, endpoint and identity enforcement, and overall visibility into the security state of computers on the network. But the SME market is very different from large enterprise. Cisco has been less than successful selling into the SME, and much of the Linksys SME product line is not interoperable with Cisco’s enterprise architecture. While SMEs have Microsoft NAP on their computers, few will build out an entire NAC/NAP infrastructure based on Cisco products.
Bihammar at IDC named cost and complexity as the prime barriers to NAC adoption, which gets to the heart of the issue. I’ve posted on this exact issue before. The vast majority of Napera customers haven’t heard of NAC, haven’t participated in these debates, and primarily care about the practical application of technology and risks in their company to solve a business problem and not the technology itself. They want a solution that helps them take back control of the computers accessing their network and that does so easily and affordably. That’s where the real opportunity is - how do you help that customers solve those problems without complex, expensive large enterprise products? And that’s what Napera is all about.